The impact of Lockdown-2 in Britain: Britain's second recession threat in this cold: PMI


 

In this cold, the danger of recession for the second time is seen on the UK. The UK has announced a lockdown for the prevention of coronavirus throughout England, which has been in effect since Thursday. Whereas, according to a survey by financial data company IHS Market, the UK economy was almost flat in October.

 

The IHS Market / CIPS Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) hit a four-month low of 51.4 in October. It was at 56.1 in September. An index above 50 means growth and a fall below.



V-Shaped recovery hopes completely crushed



Samuel Tombs, Chief UK Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the hopes for a V-shaped recovery have been completely wiped out. In the second quarter of 2020 (April-June), Britain's GDP had fallen by 20 per cent. The figure for the third quarter has not yet arrived, but a strong recovery was seen as early as the third quarter.




What is double dip resistance

After a decline in GDP, when GDP grows in the next quarter and GDP falls again in the subsequent quarter, it is called double dip resistance. It is also called W (W) shape recovery.



UK economy stalled before lockdown-2

IHS market economist Tim Moore said the October data showed the UK service sector was almost at a standstill before the lockdown was announced in England. From Thursday all non-essential shops, pubs and restaurants in England will be closed for 4 weeks. Only takeaway food serving outlets will be open.



Recovery journey will be more difficult in 2021

Moore said that it seems Britain is moving towards double dip resistance in this cold. Also, the journey of recovery in 2021 is going to be more difficult. There has been a sharp decline in the new order component of service PMI in the UK. Service companies have fired employees for the eighth consecutive month.





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